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A PSYCHIC EYE ON WALL STREET Recession (picks) February 5, 2001 - 10:17 p.m. EST, By Marcus Goodwin
With the presidential torch now wholeheartedly passed to George W from Bill, and the transition of a t-shirt and jean wearing contingence in the white house to that of "strict conservatism," and all that is affiliated with such a heading, we brace ourselves for a far more noteworthy transition, one of realer interest; a move from a full decade of absorbent growth and prosperity to that of downright recession (?). Fed Chair Alan Greenspan warned that the economy would nosedive into recession if consumer confidence took a nosedive. Well, it did. Consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in four years; CC Index dropped more than 14 points to 114.4, the lowest level since December 1996. Furthermore, about 21.8 percent of all consumers polled expected fewer available jobs; up from 15.7 percent in December. To confirm the joblessness, the Chrysler division of DaimlerChrysler A.G. announced it would reduce its work force by 26,000, or 20%, over the next 3 years saying, "The markets are shrinking, competition is brutal, we are under pressure from imports and an incentive war is on." You don't say. The bursting of the Internet bubble last year, too, brought with it changes -- everywhere. But gone are many of the US based dot-com executives who have in recent years preached, "The Internet is everything." Humbled now are they, the members of the Silicon Valley elite, who have played a visible role in the 90s, but are now faced with visible redemption. Meanwhile, people are still buying staples. Household products maker and Dow component Procter & Gamble Co. confirms; said second-quarter profit rose 4 percent beating Wall Street forecasts. The maker of Tide, Crest, and other household names said it was comfortable with the high end of analysts' earnings estimates for the full fiscal year. And within the confines of an old Quaker meetinghouse in PA, Arthur Levitt, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission tipped his hat in farewell, and opened the door to a new regime. The longest-serving S.E.C. chairman ever said, "Look at the markets. It's been a fabulous period to be on Wall Street." But I bet he was thinking, "I'm out of here! And just in time too." Everything is in a state of flux. And a Scottish court, in the Netherlands, convicted a Libyan intelligence officer of murder in the 1988 bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, that killed 270 people confirming that the use of terrorism is still the political instrument of choice amongst our enemies. Recession reading, A chilling 6-months
- then recovery. And out of the Bush's, again. Picks Feb 2001 BJ SERVICES CO (NYSE:BJS)
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